Scenario succeeded

Scenario failed -- Residual conventional power requirement (hours) according to power category (GW)

Renewable energy volatility: surpluses (>0) and deficits (<0) (GW), before processing:blue, after processing:red:. Maximal variable backup power:gray

Storage charge level (% of storage capacity), Pumped storage: blue, Batteries: red, Gas storage: green

Energy flow into (red) and out of (blue) the storage (GW)

The simulation is using data from Energy Charts, exclusively with offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar, plus optionally assumed hypothetically constant baseload power plants (such as hydro, biomass, waste, nuclear power plants, or non-regulated coal-fired power plants. It is based on the Publication that refers to this online simulator. A detailled description of the orignal version of the tool is in the Appendix of the paper. The functionality has been slightly enhanced meanwhile, e.g. by carbon footprint calculations, but the original functionality is unchanged.

Please note, this is not an exact projection, but an optimistic estimate, where the complications due to the real power grid and the distribution of power plants are not taken into account. The real results may therefore not be better, but significantly worse than in this simulation. The graphs of the years 2023 and 2024, where all real data are available, are not(!) identical to the offically published graphs, because here only the load and the renewable energy components are used from the official data. In particular the usage of pump storage does not correspond to the historical data.

For example, it is assumed that any amount of electricity can flow from north to south and vice versa (copper plate assumption).
The increasing problems of surplus electricity are treated by assuming a given percentage of RE to subject to possible curtailment. This means that a remaining surplus at the end of the process indicates failure of the scenario.

Logic of renewable energy expansion: Each of solar, onshore wind and offshore wind production has its own expansion factor. The base line 2023 and the installation targets for the scenarios are from Agora study, key findings, Figure 9.

For battery storage, only the capacity costs of the batteries are assumed; control and wiring are assumed to be included.
For gas storage (PtH2tP), costs for inflow in the form of electrolyzers are incurred, as are additional costs for converting hydrogen into methane, methanol, or ammonia. Costs for outflow are assumed to be in the form of gas-fired power plants or gas engines. The actual capacity-dependent storage for the preconfigured scenarios is assumed to be in caverns.

All costs are assumed to be per year. For example, if the lifetime of a battery storage system with total costs (incl. operation and maintenance) of €100,000/MWh capacity is assumed to be 10 years, then the annual costs are €10,000 per MWh capacity. In order to get the specific costs, this is multiplied by the planned installed capacity and divided by the energy actually delivered from the storage system. This results in the costs per MWh delivered from the storage system. Typically the yearly operational costs have to be added onto these investment costs.

The expansion costs for photovoltaics are assumed to be €1/Wp for a 25-year lifetime, for onshore wind, €1/Wp for a 20-year lifetime, and for offshore wind, €2/Wp for a 20-year lifetime.

The annual costs for grid expansion are calculated per newly installed capacity, i.e. €/MWp, based on the estimate of around €34 billion/year for grid expansion with an expansion of around 30 GW/year of installed renewable energy capacity. The subsidies are based on total electricity consumption from renewables, i.e., approximately €20 billion for 2024 with 244 TWh of electricity consumption from renewables.

For the reconstruction of decommissioned nuclear power plants (max. 10 GW), costs of €2/W are assumed for a lifetime of 40 years. Nuclear power plants are CO2-free. Their output is therefore attributed to renewable energy. Nuclear power plants can be quickly curtailed by up to 70%, making the ideal for supplementing wind and solar energy supplies.

Changing the scenario automatically starts a new simulation. For all other parameter changes, the simulation is started by clicking the "Simulation" button, alternatively by hitting the "Return" key.
The charts are initially displaying the whole year. It can be drilled down to a single month, even a single day by the "Month selection" and "Day selection" select boxes.
All calculations are done for the whole year, only the two graphs are scaled to months or days.